AI labor economics · The Wagecard

Price the role before you restructure it.

The AI cost to run the role, next to the market rate for it. The instrument, not the alarm bell.

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Financial analyst · US Tier-2 · mid-level

Augmentation territory

Economic substitution exposure

44/ 100±6 pts

038–50 interval · high confidence100

Operational AI cost

$3,100/mo

Oversight, retries, and error cost priced in.

Market rate (p50)

$98k/yr

Median pay × city × experience band.

Task distribution

Replaceable tasks16%

AI-augmented41%

Human-led + AI-assisted28%

Human-critical15%

/m/v8 · computed live · illustrative sample

Open methodology
Privacy by architecture
No ad trackers
Versioned monthly
Confidence band on every number

What a Wagecard tells you

Capability isn't the question. Economic viability is.

Pick a role and its task mix; Wagecore returns the operational AI cost, the market rate, and the four-class substitution distribution — every number with its method and a confidence band.

Operational AI cost
Market rate (p50)
Four task classes
Confidence band
Open methodology

They say

“AI replaces the role.”

The math says

Most of it is augmentation. The operational cost decides the rest — role by role, with a confidence band.

Why Wagecore

The instrument, not the alarm bell.

Three reads on your work — the substitution mix, the Wagecard itself, and how we differ from forecasts.

Instant

Your Wagecard, in two minutes

Pick a role, see operational AI cost next to market salary, your substitution mix, and where human advantage lives. Anonymous preview before signup.

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Adaptive

Four substitution classes

Every task is split into replaceable, AI-augmented, human-led-AI-assisted, and human-critical. The mix rebalances as capability shifts — with the math shown.

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Open

Auditable, not a forecast

Faethm and Pearson predict job loss in percentages. We price operational cost per task with auditable confidence bands. Versioned formulas, no black box.

See how we compare

Why it's free

Free to run. Built to stay sharp.

No paywall on the number, no PII by construction, and the methodology is published. The read only gets more precise over time.

Price a role in two minutes

Pick a role and its task mix; get the operational AI cost, the market rate, and the four-class distribution.

Private by construction

No PII, ever — your inputs are never stored against your name. Privacy by architecture.

Sharper over time

Open methodology, recalibrated continuously — so every read stays current.

From the blog

Essays on the operational math.

The cost, the distribution, the human-advantage layer — and the cases the market has already lived through.

Comparison

Financial Analyst vs Accountant: where AI substitution economics actually diverge in 2026

Two finance roles people routinely treat as one substitutable block. A cell-level comparison across the four substitution classes — with confidence bands, the loaded human baseline, and what the divergence does to an Investment View.

Jun 4, 2026 · 12 min read

Role read

What does it actually cost to replace a customer support agent with AI in 2026?

Klarna's 700-agent AI announcement, the 853-agent escalation, and the 2025 human-rehire reversal are usually read as a triumph or a failure. Read as a tool, they map cleanly onto four substitution classes — Full, Supervised, Augmentation, Non-substitutable Residual — each with its own cost band, not a point estimate.

May 20, 2026 · 10 min read

Role read

AI exposure for product designers in 2026 — the 10% wedge that isn't the role

Visual-asset generation is the only Replaceable cell at capability 85 across the role. Wireframes and handoff are AI-augmented; user research and stakeholder reviews are Human-critical. The displaced 10% is real — and the other 90% is gaining importance.

May 13, 2026 · 7 min read

Role read

AI exposure for data engineers in 2026 — augmented, never replaced

Six tasks across SQL, ETL, schema design, debugging, infrastructure architecture, and stakeholder reviews. Zero Replaceable cells. The economic frontier is augmentation, not substitution — and the role's structure tells you exactly why.

May 13, 2026 · 7 min read

Role read

AI exposure for ML engineers in 2026 — the unusual case

ML engineers build the systems that automate other work. The recursion question is real but mostly the wrong question. The actual exposure read is more interesting — and the operational AI cost line for ML-engineering tasks is uniquely high.

May 13, 2026 · 8 min read

Role read

AI exposure for product managers in 2026 — capability ≠ ownership

Product management decomposes into research synthesis, writing, prioritization, stakeholder communication, roadmap maintenance, and strategy. AI can do some of these well. Two are Human-critical, and not for the reason most PM-vs-AI hot takes assume.

May 13, 2026 · 8 min read

Role read

AI exposure for software engineers in 2026 — where the economics actually flip

Cell-level read across writing production code, tests, docs, code review, system design, on-call, mentoring. Where the AI-augmented frontier actually lands for software engineering — and why no task in the role clears the Replaceable bar in v1.

May 13, 2026 · 8 min read

Original research

We modeled AI substitution economics for 15 knowledge-worker roles. Here's where it gets uncomfortable.

Cross-role read across software engineering, product, design, data, ML, ops, support, sales engineering, finance, and engineering management. Five findings — including the one most AI-risk frameworks systematically miss.

May 13, 2026 · 13 min read

AI labor economics · tracker

Hundreds of billions bought the capability. See what it earns back.

What the biggest AI players invested vs what they disclose earning — then every role costed. Every number sourced.

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$372B

Hyperscaler capex, 2025

$52B

AI revenue they disclose

For teams

Need it across a team? Run an org audit.

The same engine across five roles — NPV, IRR, and payback per role against your loaded labor cost, on the same continuously-updated model. Above your HRIS, not against it.

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NPV / IRR / Payback
Five roles
Open methodology
Market-rate comparison

The real cost of AI isn't the license price.

It's the operational cost of running the role — oversight, retries, and error cost — priced against the market rate, with a confidence band on every number. Start with one free Wagecard.

Privacy by architecture: magic-link auth, one-click account deletion, aggregate data carries no PII by construction.

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